Chinese paint majors look to domestic consumer sales as commercial real estate slumps

China’s paint and coatings companies are struggling to make headway in a tough domestic real estate market, even though medium-term forecasts remain positive. In the first six months of 2024, the value of real estate sales fell by 26.4% year-on-year. The average prices of deals struck dropped by 7%, according to the China Real Estate Information Corp, which bases its data on the country’s 100 largest real estate developers. Meanwhile, property development investment fell by 10.3% year-on-year (H1 2023 compared to H1 2024) as the country’s housing market struggled to absorb a supply glut, said the real estate company.

Paint firms have also struggled to collect money from property developers. In the first half of 2024, Chinese paint manufacturing major Sankeshu set aside a credit impairment loss of Chinese Yuan Renminbi CNY 157 million (USD 22.3 million), nearly double the figure of the previous year (Source).

Faced with these challenges, higher-priced, functional, health-and-safety-focused products appear to be the survival strategy of Sankeshu (also known as Skshu Paint Co Ltd), judging by a PPCJ visit to one of the company’s B2C stores in the busy Beijing suburb of Fengtai.

Staff explained the virtues of one of the company’s newer products, ‘Fresh Breath Leaf Extract Anti-Formaldehyde Antibacterial Purifying’ paint (Source), which, at CNY 908 (USD 129) per five-litre can, is sold with promises to capture formaldehyde in the air and turn it into harmless water molecules. Emblazoned with an image of Beijing’s historic Summer Palace, the can’s labelling also assures consumers of the paint’s antibacterial qualities and lists a series of bodies which, according to Sankeshu, have tested the product. This includes the US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) and it has secured the UL Greenguard Gold Certification Standard, according to the company.

Other lines sold with functionality in mind include the CNY 188 (USD 26.70) per five-litre can Yisenhuo odourless and mildew-proof three-in-one paint, which is certified by the China Green Product certificate and the China Environmental Labelling Programme.

The Fengtai store is one of thousands opened across China by Sankeshu to tap into the consumer market as investment in new real estate projects has tapered off. Fengtai staff also calculate the amount of paint required by consumers and can provide professional painters, for a fee.

The focus on its B2C business appears to be working for Sankeshu. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved sales revenue of CNY 3.29 billion (USD 468 million) for wall paint, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. CNY 1.84 billion of that figure came from bulk ‘engineering wall paint’ sold to construction companies for infrastructure and real estate projects, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. However, domestic ‘home wall paint’ sales at CNY 1.45 billion were up 20.1%, according to the company’s H1 2024 results (Source).

“The company has achieved rapid growth in wall paint products by accelerating the expansion of retail channels,” noted Shenzhen, Guangdong province-based full-service investment bank CITIC Securities in a research note on the company’s performance. However, Sankeshu is also clearly engaged in price cutting to maintain market share: the company’s home wall paint sales volume reached 252,000 tonnes in H1 2024, up 24% year-on-year, but the average unit price per kilo fell by 3.1% compared to the same period in 2023.

The results of other major Chinese paint firms reveal similar challenges. Architectural paints and coatings-focused Beijing-based Oriental Yuhong reported a 10% slide in revenues in the first half of 2024, to CNY 15.2 billion (USD 2.16 billion). However, net profits fell much more sharply, dropping 29% to CNY 940 million (USD 133 million) (Source). This suggests a price war as companies battle for a share of a shrinking market.

Coatings and insulation maker Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co Ltd also saw sales tumble in the first half of 2024. The company’s building coatings sales, at CNY 610 million (USD 87 million), were down 41% on the same period last year. Energy-saving and waterproofing sales dropped 14% year-on-year and grew 21%, respectively, suggesting some resilience. The company’s home decoration coatings division reported revenues of CNY 45.8 million, down 28.5% year-on-year, with average sales prices down 8.1% compared to the same period in 2023.

The company, which heavily markets its colourful imitation stone paint on Chinese social media, aims to open 3,000 large stores nationwide over the next decade. Like Sankeshu, its growth strategy appears centred on higher-value products for the home decor sector. The company introduced the US-based Rust-Oleum brand in a strategic tie-up with its owner, RPM International, announced in July, with the Shanghai company promising to build 800 outlets selling Rust-Oleum in the next three years (Source).

Analysts see long-term potential in the company’s rollout of shops across smaller cities as China’s second-hand real estate market takes off, with properties built during the 2003–2013 peak of China’s real estate boom being redecorated and traded. “It may take some time for the demand for remodelling to significantly surpass new home decoration and become a more sustainable growth track,” noted a research report on the company published by Nanjing-based integrated securities group Huatai Securities Co Ltd (Source).

A bleak picture of the pressure facing China’s economy was painted by Ren Zeping, one of China’s most prominent economists, in a report on his WeChat account on 17 September 2024 (Source). Ren pointed to 20 months of negative PPI (producer price index) growth, indicating manufacturing malaise, and a CPI (consumer price index) hovering at zero, suggesting severe deflationary pressure: “China’s stock and real estate markets have been in retreat for three years,” wrote Ren.

Given these challenges, the consumer-facing strategy of China’s paint companies will be tested by the future health of China’s economy, whose GDP, despite these issues, is projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to increase by 5% in 2024. The fall in real estate values means urbanites’ assets have shrunk, said Ren, leading to a “downgrade in consumption.” Meanwhile, he pointed out that the number of new business registrations has fallen sharply, while national tax revenues fell by 5.4% between January and July, reducing the capacity of local governments to fund infrastructure spending.

Longer term, this problem is being compounded by an even larger structural challenge: a shrinking population, exacerbated by the falling birth rate. The number of newborns in China fell precipitously, from 16 million in 2013 to nine million in 2023.

Debt overhangs combined with the looming depopulation mean China’s construction sector cannot be revitalised in the short term, noted French investment bank Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking in a September (2024) briefing note. It added that geopolitical tensions surrounding China have created more uncertainty as Chinese manufacturers seek new export markets: “Regardless of the outcome of the US election, tariffs [on Chinese goods] will expand beyond high tech,” predicted Natixis.

In a September 2024 briefing note, Natixis stated that geopolitical tensions surrounding China have created more uncertainty as Chinese manufacturers seek new export markets. “Regardless of the outcome of the US election, tariffs [on Chinese goods] will expand beyond high tech,” predicted Natixis.

That could mean paints and coatings, as well as inputs for the paint industry, may become embroiled in more trade wars, reducing trade flows. China’s exports of paint ingredients have already raised the hackles of European Union (EU) authorities, who imposed a 39.7% tariff on imports of Chinese titanium dioxide in July 2024 (Source) to protect European producers from an influx of cheaper products unwanted in China.

Nevertheless, market researchers still believe that, in the medium term, China’s latent strength as a vast market of 1.4 billion people will ensure solid growth in paint and coatings sales. USA-based TechSci Research has predicted that the Chinese paint and coatings market, valued at USD 20.55 billion in 2023, will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.86% through to 2029 (Source 1). Additionally, India’s Mordor Intelligence predicts the Chinese architectural coatings market will generate sales of USD 27.12 billion in 2024, expanding at a CAGR of 4.77% to reach USD 32.68 billion by 2028 (Source 2).

By Mark Godfrey, in Beijing